Here at the tail end of August, most states are already preparing for sweater weather. In Texas, however, we’re still here in our swimsuits.
Each year, the fall lovers among us hold out hope that for just once, we would be able to experience cool weather, a dash of autumn colors, and conditions that would justify a arm pumpkin spice latte. Unfortunately, that’s not in the cards for Central/Southern Texas – at least according to Farmers Almanac.
2026 Fall Texas preview
While the publication doesn’t go into detail by city, the Almanac predicts warmer-than-average weather in Southern Texas during the month of September and October. It expects September to begin broadly warm, with a more noticeable cool-down and increasingly frequent rain or storm systems by November. Throughout the season, the publication predicts above-average precipitation.
If you’re interested in cozy weather, and are willing to make a bit of a road trip, North Texas is expected to be slightly cooler than average with up to 4 inches of rain more than average.
Farmers Almanac
Old Farmers’ Almanac is a U.S. annual publication, founded in 1818, that publishes long-range, region-wide weather outlooks as well as calendars, cosmic content, and folklore. Regarding its season previews, its underlying methodology is proprietary – claiming 80% – 85% accuracy. Other sources, argue that accuracy is even lower.
All this is to say that fall might shape up a little differently in Texas – with a little luck, a lot differently.
When does fall start in Houston?
The first official day of fall in 2026 is Tuesday, September 22. For those new here, Houston usually gets its first hints of fall in late September, but reliably fall-like conditions tend to arrive in mid-to-late October. The most consistently pleasant stretch is typically November, when humidity is lower and cold fronts are more frequent.
